Ipswich Town (D4 L4), Crystal Palace (D3 L5), Southampton (D1 L7) and Wolves (D1 L7) are all winless after eight games – the first time in Premier League history that four teams haven’t tasted victory yet.
Per Transfermarkt, 35 teams have been winless after eight games. 12 have avoided relegation. A further dive into statistics of slow-starting teams might not fill fans with excitement either.
Wolves and Southampton stand on one point from eight games. Only six other teams have started the Premier League so poorly, but two have survived: Sunderland (2013/14) and Southampton (1998/99).
Although Paolo Di Canio was sacked after five games for Sunderland, Southampton stuck with Dave Jones throughout that season, finishing 17th. Russel Martin made assured comments on backing from the club after his side’s 3-2 loss to Leicester and believes his fate will align with Jones’.
Embed from Getty ImagesWolves have conceded 23 goals after facing seven of the top nine this campaign. This has only ever been worsened by Southampton (2012/13) and Leicester (2022/23), who finished 14th and 18th respectively.
Worse reading can be drawn from Wolves’ goal difference (-13). Only 12 teams have had a worse goal difference after eight games, three of which survived.
Embed from Getty ImagesPalace have scored a league-low five goals. Yet in 2017/18, the Eagles had only scored twice by this stage and still came 11th. Palace’s hope to correct this can be backed by underperforming their expected goals (xG) by almost four (9.1xG).
Further underlying data from FBref suggests course correction is also likely for Southampton but not Ipswich:
- Southampton’s expected goal difference (xGD) is -6.4, despite a goal difference of -12.
- Ipswich’s xGD is -10.8 and a goal difference of -10.
Although it feels these teams must win soon, history says they don’t have to yet. After 11 games (by the next international break), 11 teams have been winless, yet four have survived.
Opta have suggested Palace’s probability of relegation is the lowest, at 16.1%. Wolves (60.9%), Ipswich (77.9%) and Southampton (96.0%) are tipped to go down and must prove Opta wrong. Spoiler: it’s been done before.
