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Home   /   The Winless Four: survival chances through statistics
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For the first time in English top-flight history, four teams are winless after eight games.

What does this mean for Ipswich, Crystal Palace, Southampton and Wolves, and how do they compare to past struggling teams?

According to Transfermarkt, 35 teams have been winless after eight games. Just 12 have avoided relegation.

Wolves and Southampton stand on one point. Only six other teams have started the Premier League so poorly, two of which survived: Sunderland (2013/14) and Southampton (1998/99).

Paolo Di Canio was sacked after five games for Sunderland, whereas Southampton stuck with Dave Jones throughout that season. Russell Martin will hope his fate aligns with Jones’.

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Wolves have conceded 23 goals so far, a number only previously topped by Southampton (2012/13) and Leicester (2022/23). They finished 14th and 18th respectively.

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Palace have scored a league-low five goals. Yet in 2017, the Eagles had only scored twice by this stage and finished 11th. Palace’s hope to correct this can be backed by underperforming their expected goals by almost five (9.8xG), according to FBref.

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Ipswich have the most points (4) from these teams, the same tally as last season’s promoted pair Burnley and Luton – but both were relegated.

Must these teams win soon? After 11 games, 11 teams have been winless, four of which survived, so history says they do not have to yet. Opta suggest Palace’s probability of relegation is the lowest, at 16.1%. Wolves (60.9%), Ipswich (77.9%) and Southampton (96.0%) are tipped to go down and must prove Opta wrong.

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